For years, young adults heard the same advice: get a four-year degree, land an office job, and climb. But the ladder they were told to climb is getting crowded at the top. Many baby boomers and Gen X workers are staying on the job longer, and research from Italy shows that when senior workers delay retirement, the workers below them can wait longer for raises and promotions.
The skilled trades face a different problem: too few people coming in. Nearly a quarter of tradespeople are 55 or older, only 11% are under 25, and employers will need to fill about 1.7 million skilled-trades openings every year through 2035. For a young worker, that gap can mean more room to move up, though no study yet shows that trades workers advance faster than office workers. The catch is getting trained without piling up debt.
Here’s what the research says, where the opportunity is real, and how to pay for training the smart way.
When the people above you don’t retire
The clearest evidence comes from a natural experiment. In 2011, Italy abruptly tightened the rules for collecting a public pension, delaying pension eligibility and leading many workers near retirement to stay on the job longer. Economists at Northwestern University and elsewhere tracked what happened to their younger coworkers.
The results, published in the Review of Economic Studies in 2023:
- A one-year increase in the average retirement age of workers near retirement cut younger coworkers’ wage growth by about 2.5% a year.
- When managers delayed retirement, the number of younger workers promoted into management dropped by nearly half.
- The effect was strongest at companies with limited room to promote. At fast-growing firms, younger workers’ pay growth didn’t change.
Three caveats matter. The study used Italian data, so the size of the effect in the U.S. may differ. In the four years studied, the wage slowdown hit workers 36 and older, not those 35 and under, though the researchers expect it may eventually reach the youngest workers. And the problem isn’t older workers themselves. It’s slow-growing employers where a promotion only opens when someone leaves.
That last point is the practical takeaway. The question isn’t just which career you choose. It’s whether the place you work is growing fast enough to make room for you.
The trades have a different problem
A September 2026 report from the Alliance for America’s Skilled Trades, a coalition that includes Ford, Google, BlackRock and Carhartt, examined 124 trade occupations across all 50 states. Its findings:
| What the report found | The number |
|---|---|
| Skilled-trades openings projected each year through 2035 | About 1.7 million |
| Share of trade workers age 55 or older | 24% |
| Share of trade workers under 25 | 11% |
| Workers being trained for every 100 needed | 55 |
| Share of trade-training enrollees who finish | About half (48%) |
Much of that demand comes from replacing workers who retire or otherwise leave these occupations. In some trades, such as tool and die making, 48% of the workforce is 55 or older.
The report also flagged nine states where demand is outpacing supply: Arizona, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, New Jersey, North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas.
The pipeline problem starts early. In a national survey of 202 school counselors, 88% said they often recommend a four-year college, while 28% often recommend an apprenticeship.
A shortage isn’t a guarantee
The trades are not a shortcut for everyone. Before you switch paths, weigh a few realities:
- Finishing is the hard part. Only about half of people who enroll in trade training complete it. Transportation, child care and the need for a paycheck are among the barriers the report names.
- Demand is local. A shortage in Texas doesn’t help you if your trade is oversupplied where you live.
- The work is physical. Be honest with yourself about whether you can do it for decades.
- Pay varies widely. Trade, region, licensing and union status all matter. Look up local wages for the specific job before you commit.
How to pay for trade training without unnecessary debt
Start with money you never have to repay, and borrow last.
Look at apprenticeships first. A registered apprenticeship pays you while you learn, which can keep your out-of-pocket costs low. Costs vary by program, so ask the sponsor for a breakdown of any tuition, fees, tools and transportation you’d cover.
File the FAFSA. Many trade schools participate in federal aid, including Pell Grants, which generally don’t have to be repaid. Confirm that your specific program is eligible, not just the school. The maximum Pell Grant is $7,395 for 2026-27, unchanged from 2025-26.- Ask about Workforce Pell. Since July 1, 2026, Pell Grants can cover approved short training programs of at least 8 but fewer than 15 weeks (150 to 599 clock hours) that lead to in-demand jobs. Awards are prorated, so a short course won’t get the full $7,395. Even people who already hold a bachelor’s degree can qualify, as long as they don’t have a graduate degree. One catch: you can’t add federal student loans for a Workforce Pell program. Ask each school directly whether its program is approved, since not every program is ready yet.
Check for employer and union money. Ask prospective employers whether they pay for training and what work commitment they require in return. Ask local unions and apprenticeship sponsors what financial support they offer.
Borrow federal before private. If you still have a gap in a loan-eligible program, federal student loans generally carry more protections than private loans. Use private loans or school financing only to cover what’s left, and compare the total cost of every offer.
Vet the school before you sign. Ask for its completion rate, job placement rate and the average starting pay of recent graduates. A cheap program you don’t finish can leave you with debt and no credential, so completion rates matter as much as price.
What this means for your money
- If you’re in an office job, look at how fast your employer is growing. Slow growth plus a crowded senior bench is a signal to build skills that travel, or to look at faster-growing companies.
- If you’re considering the trades, pick the occupation first, then check local demand and pay before choosing a program.
- Keep debt in proportion to pay. A common rule of thumb: don’t borrow more in total for your training than you realistically expect to earn in your first year on the job.
- Budget beyond tuition. Tools, licensing exams, gear and transportation can add up.
- Don’t skip retirement savings. If a slow career start means you save less early, you could end up working longer yourself.
FAQ
Are older workers really blocking promotions for younger workers?
Research from Italy found that when workers near retirement stayed longer, younger coworkers saw slower wage growth and fewer promotions, mostly at companies with limited room to promote. In the four years studied, the wage slowdown showed up among workers 36 and older, not those 35 and under. At fast-growing firms, pay growth didn’t change.
How many skilled-trades openings are projected each year?
The Alliance for America’s Skilled Trades projects about 1.7 million openings each year through 2035, from job growth plus replacing workers who retire or leave these occupations. That’s a yearly flow of openings, not a count of jobs vacant today.
Why are there so many openings in the trades?
Nearly a quarter of tradespeople are 55 or older, and only 11% are under 25. Training programs are producing about 55 workers for every 100 needed.
Can I use a Pell Grant for trade school?
Often, yes, if both the school and your program are eligible for federal aid. Since July 2026, Workforce Pell also covers approved programs as short as eight weeks, with prorated awards.
Can I get Workforce Pell if I already have a bachelor’s degree?
Yes, as long as you don’t have a graduate degree and otherwise meet Pell eligibility rules. Regular Pell Grants aren’t available to bachelor’s degree holders.
What’s the cheapest way to learn a trade?
Compare registered apprenticeships first, because you’re paid while you train. Costs still vary by program, so weigh them against grant-funded options. Scholarships and employer assistance can also cut out-of-pocket costs.
Should I take out private loans for trade school?
Only after using grants, scholarships, employer help and federal loans. Private loans usually have fewer protections, so compare total repayment costs carefully.
Is the trade shortage the same everywhere?
No. The report identified nine states where demand is outpacing supply. Check local demand for your specific trade before enrolling.
Abdul Qadeer is a freelance writer and SEO assistant for AskTheMoneyCoach.com, the award-winning financial education platform founded by Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, also known as The Money Coach.
He collaborates closely with Lynnette and the editorial team to produce accurate, actionable content focused on personal finance, credit, and wealth-building strategies.
Abdul combines his SEO expertise with a passion for financial literacy to help readers make smarter money decisions and discover trusted financial resources.
